The transport role of air cargo is examined in conjunction with its two major competitors, road and rail over the period 1967 to 1987 for Canada. An understanding of these modes is provided by examining the historical development of each and the effect governmental regulations and policy decisions have had on their growth. A macro-demand model, forecasting the ton-mile freight demand for road, rail, and air services, is developed. A model, employing linear graph analysis, is developed to forecasting the ton-mile freight demand for road, rail, and air services, is developed. A model, employing linear graph analysis, is developed to simulate the three mode transport industry. First the methodology and computer programs for the system are developed and demonstrated on a three node, two mode hypothetical system. A thirty city, three mode model of the nations goods distribution system is then calibrated on destination distribution using the collected base year data. Based on the macro forecast and projected cost trends air cargo is predicted to increase its share of the ton-mile market some sixteen times, from less than 0.05% in 1967 to 0.80% in 1987. (Author)
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