US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants.

摘要

This white paper was originally drafted as background for a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focused on the use and development of scenarios. The paper is being published as a chapter in the report of the workshop because the authors and members of the organizing committee believe it conveys information of use to participants in the assessment process, and the broader research and user communities that work with scenarios in climate science. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants.