The US market for high-temperature superconducting wire in transmission cable applications

摘要

Telephone interviews were conducted with 23 utility engineers concerning the future prospects for high-temperature superconducting (HTS) transmission cables. All have direct responsibility for transmission in their utility, most of them in a management capacity. The engineers represented their utilities as members of the Electric Power Research Institute`s Underground Transmission Task Force (which has since been disbanded). In that capacity, they followed the superconducting transmission cable program and are aware of the cryogenic implications. Nineteen of the 23 engineers stated the market for underground transmission would grow during the next decade. Twelve of those specified an annual growth rate; the average of these responses was 5.6%. Adjusting that figure downward to incorporate the remaining responses, this study assumes an average growth rate of 3.4%. Factors driving the growth rate include the difficulty in securing rights-of-way for overhead lines, new construction techniques that reduce the costs of underground transmission, deregulation, and the possibility that public utility commissions will allow utilities to include overhead costs in their rate base. Utilities have few plans to replace existing cable as preventive maintenance, even though much of the existing cable has exceeded its 40-year lifetime. Ten of the respondents said the availability of a superconducting cable with the same life-cycle costs as a conventional cable and twice the ampacity would induce them to consider retrofits. The respondents said a cable with those characteristics would capture 73% of their cable retrofits.