Base case and perturbation scenarios

摘要

This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State? s energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a ?tiebreaker;? to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation scenarios in a qualitative framework for evaluation of issue areas developed for the PIEPC program. A description of each of the perturbation scenarios and a discussion of how they could effect decisions about today? s R&D funding is included. The scenarios attempt to cover a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes in a deregulated market environment. Nowever, Vhey are not a comprehensive and rigorously defined list of the most probable scenarios, but rather a qualitative inference based upon knowledge and expertise in the energy field.