Identification of a Methodology for Projecting Short-Term Crude Petroleum Production in the United States

摘要

Box--Jenkins time series analysis is applied to state level monthly crude petroleum production data to forecast monthly production for 1978. Beyond supplying the requisite forecasts, the model is used to investigate the overall efficacy of the approach. The results indicate that the technique is satisfactorily emulates past behavior. Further, for the aggregate United States, production is expected to be 0.65 percent above the level observed in the base period of July 1976--June 1977 primarily due to a large anticipated growth in California production. (ERA citation 04:017901)