Short-Term Forecasting of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Production

摘要

The difficulties encountered in the efforts here are not unique. The paper by Schanz [7] recounts the history of trying to forecast annual production of crude petroleum and natural gas. The major shortcomings have arisen because the process of fitting and projection is a more subjective process than it appears at first glance. The analyst must exercise further judgment as to the time period of analysis as well as the technique used in fitting the data. Our problem is compounded by the desire to provide monthly forecasts.