Comparison of EIA and IPAA Petroleum Forecasts for 1978 and 1979. Analysis Report

摘要

This Analysis Report provides and compares alternate projections of petroleum supply and demand balances for the years 1978 and 1979 and contrasts all of these estimates with recently available actual data for 1978. The Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) forecasts of petroleum product demands for 1979 are lower than either of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections particularly for residual fuel oil and minor other products. This is due mainly to the fact that IPAA assumed a lower level of economic activity for 1979. Despite the consistently higher demand for total petroleum products according to EIA, the IPAA projection of 7558 thousand barrels per day (MB/D) for motor gasoline demand is bracketed by the EIA figures for low demand, 7435 MB/D, and high demand, 7596 MB/D. Motor gasoline demand is significant since it represents almost 40% of the total demand for petroleum products. The IPAA projections fall within the EIA projection ranges for 1979 domestic crude oil production. The IPAA estimates production will be 8656 MB/D, while the EIA forecasts range from 8583 MB/D to 8808 MB/D. Alaskan crude oil production from the North Slope provides a large share of the domestic total. There is general agreement on the Alaskan projections; EIA estimates North Slope production will be 1200 Mb/D, while the IPAA figure is 1130 MB/D. The projections for petroleum imports are derived from the corresponding estimates for demand and supply. As such, the IPAA projection for 1979 imports excluding US strategic storage activities, lies below the range from the alternate EIA cases. This is attributable mainly to the higher levels of demand embodied in the latter figures. The IPAA value is 8870 MB/D, while the EIA values range from 9043 MB/D up to 9449 MB/D. In addition, the mix of imported petroleum between crude oil and refined products in the forecasts varies in each case. (ERA citation 04:049481)