Implications of Seasonal Peak Demand Forecasts for Electric Heating Desirability

摘要

The peak demands for heating and cooling as a function of building type and climate are estimated. Electric utilities' peak summer and winter electrical demands arising from use of typical electric appliances (air conditioners, resistance heating, and heat pumps) are estimated for present and predicted saturations of these appliances in many major US metropolitan areas. Most US electric utilities presently have excess capacity during winter months and are improving their load factor as sales of electric heating appliances significantly exceed historical levels. It is shown that this opportunity for load factor improvement will be transitory in many cases. Metropolitan areas fall into three categories: those (1) in which excess winter capacity is likely to be available regardless of electric heating saturation; (2) with current excess winter capacity that will become winter peaking with present heat appliance installation rates; and (3) presently winter peaking. The conclusion of the research is that, in case (3) US rates of heating appliance installation are slightly excessive. In case (2) the rates are now desirable, but if continued would be excessive by the turn of the century. For case (1) it is desirable to continue the rates indefinitely. (ERA citation 04:053385)