Meteorology and Demography Models for Risk Assessments of Accidental Atmospheric Releases of Nuclear Waste. Phase 2 Methodology

摘要

Models are derived for determining the risk of release to the atmosphere of radioactive materials during nuclear waste handling. Such releases might occur in three phases of the nuclear waste handling cycle: (1) at fuel reprocessing plants during handling and interim storage, (2) during transportation to a permanent storage area, or (3) at the permanent disposal area (federal waste repository). Gaussian diffusion equations for both plume- and puff-type releases are used with demographic models to assess relative integrated population doses. Given a unit release and assuming an equal accident probability, we conclude that the largest risk would be from a transportation accident in a metropolitan area. The effect of a release during transportation in a rural area or at a fuel reprocessing plant would be one to two orders of magnitude less, while at a federal waste repository the population dose would be three or more orders of magnitude less than for the metropolitan transportation accident. (ERA citation 05:036164)