Probalistic Short-Term Risk Modeling for Back-End Fuel Cycle and Waste Management Facilities

摘要

This study of probabilistic short-term risk modeling of back-end fuel cycle and waste management facilities represents the continuation of work started in 1977. The purpose of the report is to present a more detailed survey of models and analysis techniques that mey be applicable. The definition of the risk concept and the nature of the facilities and events which are to be analyzed are described. The most important criteria are that the model or method shall be quantitative, logically/scientifically based, and be able to handle systems of some complexity. Several formalized analysis methods are described, most of them emanating from reliability theory. No single model will fulfill all criteria simultaneously, to the degree desired. Nevertheless, fault tree analysis seems to be an efficient tool in many applications, although it must probably be used together with other models in most cases. Other methodologies described can also be useful, such as failure modes and effects analysis, renewal theory and Markov chains, reliability block diagrams, event trees and cause/consequence diagrams, the GO methodology, Monte Carlo simulation, and, often necessary, various consequence modeling techniques. (Atomindex citation 12:586093)