Petroleum Emergency Preparedness Study. Report on the Macroeconomic Consequences of a Medium-Sized Oil-Supply Disruption with a Market-Based Policy Response and Tax Rebates

摘要

This report discusses the 3-year impact on the US economy of a temporary, medium-sized disruption in world oil supplies beginning on January 1, 1982. Results of the analysis suggest that significant adverse effects can be expected in the short term on real GNP, unemployment, and inflation. A discussion on policy implications and tax rebates is presented. The Data Resource model of the US economy was used to predict economic impacts.