Mathematical Generation Planning Models Using Decomposition and Probabilistic Simulation

摘要

This report gives the underlying mathematical development of a method of planning for generation capcity. The method, incorporated in EPRI's Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System (EGEAS), is referred to there as the Generalized Benders method. Initial computation experience is given, and it shows that the method is accurate and efficient. The method makes use of linear programming, mathematical decomposition, and nonlinear production costing with probabilistic representation of generator outages. Production costing is given with two approaches, first with the Booth-Baleriaux equivalent load duration curve and then with its representation by the Gram-Charlier series of cumulants. The planning method defines marginal costs that take into account generator outages. Hydroelectric, limited-energy storage plants and renewable technologies are included.