Maintaining Automotive Mobility: Using Fuel Economy and Synthetic Fuels to Compete with OPEC Oil. Final Report

摘要

Two strategies for reducing the cost and increasing the reliability of the automotive transportation system are the improvement of fuel economy and the production of nonpetroleum fuels. The options are investigated for implementation of these strategies over the next 20 years, and the strategies are compared. The study methodology has three major components: an estimate of the costs of improving automobile and light truck fuel economy, an estimate of the cost of producing synthetic fuels for transportation, and subjecting these estimates to the scrutiny and criticism of a steering group composed of experts in the relevant fields. The methodology and data used to compute new automobile and light truck fuel economy, fleet fuel consumption, capital requirements, and consumer costs, under different scenario assumptions for the years 1980 to 2000 are described. The baseline technology and fleet characteristics are discussed, followed by a description of the automotive technology. The effects of introducing new technologies into the car and truck fleet are examined based on several scenarios, followed by a sensitivity analysis. (ERA citation 08:012612)