Dominant Trends in Worldwide Petroleum Supply and Demand

摘要

This report describes recent (1981-1984) estimates and projections of worldwide petroleum supply and demand, with special emphasis on the US. Included are estimates and projections of petroleum reserves and resources by world region, crude oil price, economic growth rates, oil demand and oil production, and life expectancy of conventional petroleum resources. The probability and effects of future oil supply disruptions are also discussed. While the various estimates and projections differ in detail, several themes are evident. One is that there is still much oil remaining worldwide to meet projected world demand through 2010. However, both the significance of OPEC as a source of oil for the rest of the world and the need to turn to alternative sources of liquid hydrocarbons will increase from now until 2010. Another theme is that US petroleum resources have a much shorter life expectancy than those of the world. Substantial increases in US imports are projected: by 2000, the US may well exceed its peak import rates of the late 1970s. Finally, the US remains susceptible to petroleum supply disruptions, the effects of which would be most evident in transportation where there is little flexibility for the use of other fuels. This transportation vulnerability is likely to remain in the foreseeable future, assuming the appearance of no radical technological innovations. (ERA citation 11:026931)