Energy Use and Fuel Substitution in Economic Development: What Happened in Developed Countries and What Might Be Expected in Developing Countries.

摘要

This paper begins with such a re-examination of developed countries' historical experiences with structural changes in energy sources and uses, in aggregate terms and, where possible, on sector- and fuel-specific bases. It then draws together comparable evidence on developing countries in an effort to assess similarities and differences in situations and experiences. Particular attention is paid to evidence of fuel substitution in the household sector, which is especially important in developing countries but has received relatively scant attention in historical studies of the developed countries. The practice of omitting wood energy from measures of the energy intensity of output, on the grounds that most wood energy is used in the household sector and that including it distorts the impression given of changes in productive energy intensity, may be a reasonable simplification for some purposes, but it may distort the insights that developed country experience can offer for current, developing country prospects. 60 refs, 8 figs, 17 tabs. (ERA citation 13:051432)