Projecting household energy consumption within a conditional demand framework

摘要

Few models attempt to assess and project household energy consumption and expenditure by taking into account differential household choices correlated with such variables as race, ethnicity, income, and geographic location. The Minority Energy Assessment Model (MEAM), developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for the US Department of Energy (DOE), provides a framework to forecast the energy consumption and expenditure of majority, black, Hispanic, poor, and nonpoor households. Among other variables, household energy demand for each of these population groups in MEAM is affected by housing factors (such as home age, home ownership, home type, type of heating fuel, and installed central air conditioning unit), demographic factors (such as household members and urban/rural location), and climate factors (such as heating degree days and cooling degree days). The welfare implications of the revealed consumption patterns by households are also forecast. The paper provides an overview of the model methodology and its application in projecting household energy consumption under alternative energy scenarios developed by Data Resources, Inc., (DRI).