Analysis of Observed and Modeled Surface Fluxes, Cloud Forcing, and Convective Processes for Improving the Meteorological and Oceanographic Modeling and Prediction Systems.

摘要

LONG TERM GOAL. The United States Navy is the Department of Defense s main source for standard meteorological and oceanographic (METOC) predictions. At the heart of these predictions are the short-to-medium range weather forecasts produced by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS; Hogan and Rosmond, 1991). Surface flux fields from NOGAPS forecasts are used as input to the oceanographic prediction systems. These systems include: 1) the Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System, 2) the Polar Ice Prediction System, and 3) the Third Generation Wave Model. Given the prominent role surface fluxes play in these systems, it is clear that their proper simulation by NOGAPS is vital. Presently, there are significant shortcomings in the NOGAPS simulation of most ocean surface heat flux components (long-term mean biases greater than 50 Wm-2 in many tropical/subtropical areas). The long term goal of this research is to determine the underlying causes for these shortcomings in order to: 1) enhance NOGAPS physical representation of the atmosphere and extend the skill of its medium range weather predictions, and 2) improve the skill of the oceanographic and coupled prediction systems via the improved simulation and prediction of the surface energy budget.