Analysis of Observed and Modeled Surface Fluxes, Cloud Forcing, and Convective Processes for Improving the Meteorological and Oceanographic Modeling and Prediction Systems.

摘要

The United States Navy is the Department of Defense s main source for standard meteorological and oceanographic predictions (METOC). At the heart of these predictions are the short-to-medium range weather forecasts produced by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). In addition to providing weather forecasts, this system provides forcing (i.e. surface fluxes) to the oceanographic prediction systems. Given the prominent role surface fluxes play in both these systems, it is vital they be properly simulated by NOGAPS. Presently, there are significant shortcomings in the NOGAPS simulation of the surface energy budget over the ocean. These shortcomings are mostly associated with mean surface latent and net solar heat flux biases that can be as large as 50 Wm-2 or more in a number of tropical/subtropical areas. The long term goal of this research is to determine the underlying causes for these shortcomings in order to: (1) enhance NOGAPS physical representation of the atmosphere and extend the skill of its medium range weather predictions; and (2) improve the skill of the oceanographic and coupled prediction systems via the improved simulation and prediction of the surface energy budget.