Structural Analysis and Modeling for Command Decisions During Fire on Board Ships

摘要

This thesis examine opportunities for the application of information technology through mathematical modeling and design of a new method of a ship's space monitoring for the support of command decisions during a fire aboard. Thesis analyzes peculiarities of a fire and difficulties inherent in gathering data, particularly the lack of objective information about a fire scale, fire dynamics, and timing of functioning the ship's equipment during an emergency aboard. It was shown that, in a closed compartment, a gas pressure monitoring is a very perspective way of determining a fire scale and its propagation ability. The appropriate models of fire development were created. They were designed in a way of using only those data that were possible to observe during a fire aboard. Depending on availability and quality of current information about the fire, an informative tree of alternative scenarios of the fire hazard analysis and command decisions was developed. Conducted in terms of decision theory concept, formalization of fire-fighting procedure permitted to accomplish structural and cost benefit analysis of the command decisions during a fire aboard. Relevant chronological decision tree diagrams were designed. Structural analysis proved that application of information technology and new method of gas pressure monitoring significantly increases efficiency of command decisions during a fire without considerable additional costs.