Battlespace/Information War (BAT/IW): A System-of-Systems Model of a Strike Operation

摘要

This paper presents a low-resolution, high-level modeling methodology for the analysis of the effectiveness of a Blue system of systems operating in a battlespace. The methodology enables quick turn around and efficient exploration of sensitivities of measures of Blue combat success to realistically imperfect Blue intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities: limited and imperfect sensor surveillance and reconnaissance, particularly battle damage assessment (BDA), and finite, hence saturable, communications and weapons delivery capability. The model explicitly represents aircraft sorties, fires, sensor/shooter latencies, target losses, imperfect target type classification, imperfect weapon assignment, and BDA; various levels of the above imperfections can be applied, facilitating tradeoff studies, The model is deterministic/ expected value in nature, although it analytically represents time-dependent stochastic features such as system saturability. Model experimentation suggests the following results. Decreasing shooter latency can result in greater attrition than correspondingly increasing the probabilities of correct BDA or weapon assignment, although at the expense of a greater number of weapons fired per target killed. Erroneous BDA returns dead targets to the shooter targeting list. These dead targets not only result in wasted weapon expenditure but also take sensor/shooter resources away from legitimate live targets. Increasing the probability of correct BDA can result in a greater number of targets killed during a time period than increasing the probability of correct weapon assignment.