Oceania's Post-9/11 Security Concerns: Common Causes, Uncommon Approaches. (Asia-Pacific Security Studies. Volume 2, Number 7, November 2003)

摘要

The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) generally share a common set of security concerns, but approaches to dealing with them differ. Among the key concerns are internal divisions and nontraditional threats such as climate change and associated rises in sea level. While the possibility that terrorists will target the PICs is unlikely, transnational terrorism and its effects have had other consequences for the island states. The international community is now more concerned with the potential for the PICs to be used as havens for money laundering and transit points for smuggling. The prospect of a PIC being used as a terrorist training base has also been mentioned, though this is seen as highly improbable. Concerns that some of the PICs are growing increasingly unstable -- even becoming 'failed states' have increased in the post-9/11 world. Such categorization is too overarching, however, and a blanket policy approach is inadvisable. Action will be most effective in a manner cognizant of the local culture involved. Such an approach will require careful study and analysis but would further enhance communication between PICs and the larger nations and increase the effectiveness of policy formulation and implementation. The decision by Australia to lead a mission of 'cooperative intervention' into the Solomon Islands with the assistance of New Zealand and other PICs would have been unthinkable as little as three years ago. U.S. emphasis in Oceania will continue to be on the North Pacific, in particular the freely associated states (the Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, and Palau). The United States will defer to Australia and New Zealand to take the lead in the South Pacific. However, U.S. concerns over offshore tax havens, passport sales, and other legal as well as clearly illegal activities will be a source of increased U.S. attention in the post-9/11 era.