Divergent Stability: Managing the USAF Pilot Inventory

摘要

This study analyzes the United States Air Force's potential to establish a long-range, strategic game plan for its rated pilot force. Specifically, it addresses the problems of continual fluctuations in the USAF's pilot inventory and searches for possible solutions within available resources. The study draws relevance from the simple need for pilots in a variety of duties. The USAF's attempts to manage the pilot inventory are analogous to pilot induced oscillations (PIOs), where a pilot's attempts to correct pitch or altitude deviations results in over-compensation and deviations in the opposite direction. This study shows that the USAF pilot inventory has deviated frequently from stated requirements, and a reliance on traditional measures to correct shortages or surpluses has usually resulted in personnel induced oscillations. The author argues that the USAF's efforts to stabilize the inventory have in some cases caused greater deviations downstream. The service's reliance on pilot production and short-term retention measures for quick solutions has created long-term problems. However, the study also examines periods of relative stability in the pilot inventory and assesses whether this stability can be linked to specific measures within pilot management, production, or retention. The study proposes that the concept of a strategic reserve of pilots is instrumental to the maintenance of a stable pilot inventory. The study also shows that small changes in pilot production are prudent despite the temptation to scale production to immediate trends. The thesis concludes with an assessment of trend data and recommends the establishment of a strategic reserve of USAF pilots, changes in pilot production, and improvements in retention programs as possible solutions to the large fluctuations in the USAF pilot inventory.