Predictors of Attrition: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Educational Characteristics

摘要

An applicant's education credential repeatedly has been shown to be a strong predictor of the likelihood of completing the first term of obligation. Because of the expense of replacing those who do not complete their obligations, the Services view attrition as an outcome of primary interest. In this research, we use information from a large, Service-wide survey of new recruits to explore how a number of noncognitive factors affect attrition. Our sample includes those who hold traditional high school diplomas, those who hold a number of alternate credentials, and those who join the Services with no credential ('dropouts'). We find ample evidence that noncognitive factors influence attrition rates. Moreover, in some cases, noncognitive factors have different effects on the attrition of high school diploma graduates and other recruits. For example, those who enlist at age 17 have higher attrition rates than those who enlist at age 18, regardless of education credential. While there is little difference in attrition rates between traditional diploma graduates who enlist at 18 and those who are older at enlistment, recruits with other credentials who enlist at age 20 or more have relatively low attrition rates. Other noncognitive factors that influence attrition include smoking behavior before enlistment and attitude toward completing high school. All recruits who considered leaving high school attrite at higher rates than otherwise similar recruits, even in cases where the recruits did in fact complete high school. In other words, those who considered leaving school but actually stayed and earned degrees still have substantially higher attrition rates than other traditional diploma graduates.