NetSTAR: Methodology to Identify Enemy Network Structure, Tasks, Activities, and Roles

摘要

To counteract the enemy organization, knowledge of the principles under which this organization operates is required. This knowledge provides the ability to detect and predict the activities of the enemy and to select the appropriate counter-actions. Certain counter-actions require additional knowledge about enemy organization and processes ranging from the specifics of organizational command, control, communication and information distribution (C3I) structures to the responsibility delegation and goals at the most important enemy nodes. Our paper proposes to solve the problem of identifying the enemy organization and activities via the NetSTAR system employing a hybrid multi-phase model-based structure and process identification approach. The basis for NetSTAR is an innovative methodology that integrates a social network model of coordination, a meta-task model of enemy goals, and a Hidden-Markov Model (HMM) of enemy activities to detect subgroups engaged in coordinated activities. This model enables the computation of the likelihood of the hypothesized organizational structure and processes given the observed behavior, and allows designing effective dynamic counter-action strategies via Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) modeling.