DOD's Transformation Efforts - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

摘要

The Pentagon is on the verge of missing out on the greatest force planning opportunity of our lifetime. Unopposed by a peer competitor, the United States has entered a period in which the chances of fighting a major war over the next twenty years are low. Instead of taking advantage of this low- risk opportunity to restructure itself for the future, and despite a department- wide transformation effort that continues to gain momentum, the Department of Defense (DoD) continues to spend scarce resources on weapon systems that it does not need while failing to adequately invest in technology enablers necessary for it to successfully transform. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that DoD's current force planning assumptions are flawed and to recommend an alternative approach. Specifically, strategic planning under conditions of uncertainty is explored as well as the negative impact that the National Military Strategy - if not grounded in geo-political and fiscal reality - can have on force planning decisions. Also included is an assessment of DoD's current force planning efforts and an affordability assessment of the current and future force structure. Finally, suggestions for an alternative approach to force planning are included, which better compliments the Pentagon's current transformation efforts.