Application of Reliability and Linear Regression to Enterprise Architecture in Support of the US Air Force's Capability Review and Risk Assessment

摘要

This research explored the use of modeling and enterprise architecture in the analysis of Air Force Capabilities. The Air Force accomplishes this through the Capability Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA). The CRRA is currently performed by building architectures which contain Process Sequence Models (PSMs). PSMs are scored by Subject Matter Experts to determine the probability of successfully completing the mission they model and ultimately to determine the risk associated to Air Force capabilities. Two findings were identified. The first is that creating additional architectural viewpoints, some of which are currently being proposed for version 2.0 of the DoD Architecture Framework, can benefit CRRA development. The second is PSMs have fundamental limitations associated with the inability to capture dependencies among activities as well as the inability to get beyond binary success criteria to address issues of capability sufficiency. To remedy these limitations a model called Extended Sequence Models (ESMs) was developed. ESMs extend PSMs by using reliability modeling techniques combined with linear regression to show dependencies between components. This model also allows the effects of capability sufficiency to be captured and related to mission success.