Deterrence and Saddam Hussein: Lessons from the 1990-1991 Gulf War (Counterproliferation Papers, Future Warfare Series, Number 47)

摘要

War and deterrence both begin in the minds of men. Deterrence is a psychological phenomenon and begins between the ears of the adversary you are trying to influence. When you seek to deter a rival from doing something you do not wish him to do, you must find a way to influence his perceptions of situations, for people act not necessarily on reality but on their perception of it. As Henry Kissinger once said, 'A bluff taken seriously is more useful than a serious threat interpreted as a bluff.'1 To deter, you need to influence the rival's cost/gain evaluations. He needs to understand that he has far more to lose by initiating conflict, or by escalating it to unacceptable levels, than by not doing so. In this study, we look at President Saddam Hussein of Iraq and President George H.W. Bush of the United States and their respective governments' attempts to deter one another in the period just before Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and through the subsequent Gulf conflict that ended in February 1991. On the United States side of this deterrence effort, one must also include the deterrent effect of U.S. coalition partners in the crisis and war.