A Method for System Reliability Analysis.

摘要

The known mathematical models for system reliability analysis are based either on the mass servicing theory or on the theory of simple homogeneous Markov circuit with finite number of states. The first approach requires the establishment of a large number of differential equations while the second often demands the application of high order matrices. The present author proposes a new more direct method which, after relatively simple calculations, yields the average time for the restoration of the system into its stationary state. It is based on a solution proposed earlier by Einhorn (S. J. Einhorn, Reliability prediction for repairable redundant systems. Proc. IEEE, 1963, vol. 51, no. 2) for the case of one kind of element with identical reliability indexes. The author assumes that (1) the time of flawless operation and the time of element restoration follow the exponential distribution; (2) malfunctions and repairs of the system are mutually independent; (3) all elements which are in good order are under 'hot' operating conditions while the failing elements are out of operation; and (4) at a single instant of time there can occur only single transitions of an element from its operating state into a malfunctioning state and vice versa. The method is illustrated by an evaluation of a two-element system with four available states. Results show that the new method is faster than the existing methods.