Sensitivity Analysis of a Cognitive Architecture for the Cultural Geography Model

摘要

The success of Irregular Warfare (IW) and Counterinsurgency Operations depends on the ability to influence the civilian population based on an understanding of their social and cultural backgrounds. The Cultural Geography (CG) model was developed by TRADOC Analysis Center - Monterey, to provide military commanders with a means to evaluate the impact of IW tactical operations on the civilian population. A prototype Cognitive Architecture module was added to improve the representation of human cognition for determining the population's behavioral responses. This thesis conducted a thorough sensitivity analysis on the Cognitive Architecture module in the CG model, using experimental design and statistical data analysis techniques, to obtain an assessment of its impact on the civilian population responses, in terms of their stances on key IW issues of concern. Significant single and pairwise interaction factors in the Cognitive Architecture that contribute to the civilians' issue stances were identified. The analysis revealed demographic stereotypes of population groups notably affected by the Cognitive Architecture. The results will help to streamline data collection efforts, and provide a useful methodology and dataset, to support verification and validation of the Cognitive Architecture. Future research will adapt the Cognitive Architecture across different scenarios, as it evolves with more features.