Where Might the U.S. Army Budget Go, and How Might It Get There

摘要

In a speech in early January 2011, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates acknowledged that there will be cuts in defense spending over the next decade. He was explicit about some of these cuts, such as a reduction in the Army's end strength. Other proposals will continue to be floated as the calls for deficit reduction grow. This paper seeks to answer two questions about the future of the Army's budget: Where might the budget go. And what might the Army do. Our answers should provide decision makers in the Army with a historical context for the current budget environment and a set of possible paths to help adjust to future budget pressures. The future budget environment will pose difficult decisions for the Army. In concert with hot and Cold wars and their associated growth in Army force structure and supplemental funding, the Army's budget has waxed and waned on a roughly 20-year cycle since 1950. As the U.S. presence in Iraq and Afghanistan diminishes over the next decade, the Army will likely enter the waning phase of the budget cycle. Historical trends in the Army's budget imply that toward the end of the 2010s, assuming an end of operations in Afghanistan by 2015 or so, the real budget may fall by as much as half from 2011 outlays. This cyclic trend is not an inherent budget process but a by-product of war and postwar spending demands. If there is a return to the historical minimum spending level, the relatively small efficiencies that the Secretary of Defense has recently called for (less than 5% of the budget) will pale in comparison to the budget cuts looming.