An Investigation of the Forecasting of Aeronautical Price Indices.

摘要

An investigation of the forecasts of aeronautical price indices done by the Aeronautical Systems Division (ASD) of the Air Force Systems Command was performed. The historical price indices used by ASD were recalculated. Using these recalculated composite price indices, different forecasting techniques were examined. When starting with the composite price indices, the per cent change regression, with the Gross National Product price deflator as the only independent variable, was recommended as the best forecasting technique. Prediction intervals were calculated. The effect of errors in the Wharton Econometric Forcasting Associates prediction of the Gross National Product price deflator was discussed.