Analyzing the Effectiveness of U.S . Arms Transfer Restraint -- A Statistical Approach

摘要

In his May 19, 1977 Statement on Conventional Arms Transfer Policy, President Carter outlined a set of controls designed to implement his policy of arms transfer restraint. The Defense Security Assistance Agency subsequently stated that the preliminary purpose of these controls is to restrain the flow of advanced weapons to less-developed-country (LDC) recipients. The effectiveness of this U.S. initiative in actually dampening the flow of arms to LDCs also depends on (1) restraint on the part of West European and Warsaw Pact major arms suppliers, and/or (2) restraint on the part of LDC arms recipients. However, any curbs on the flow of arms whether due to one or a combination of the above factors must eventually manifest itself in a decline in the pattern of LDC arms imports. This single fact provides a basis upon which the effectiveness of U.S. efforts to restrain the flow of arms to LDC's might be analyzed. Specifically this paper demonstrates one way in which statistical techniques might be used to analyze the effectiveness of President Carter's conventional arms transfer policy. The procedure used in the analysis is to: Formulate appropriate null and alternative hypotheses regarding future LDC arms imports. Use regression and correlation analyses to define a quantitative relationship between LDC arms imports and the major variable(s) influencing these imports. Calculate the critical value for LDC arms imports for a given year and at a specified level of confidence. Test the hypotheses as data on the actual value of LDC arms imports for the given year becomes available. (Author)