Probabilistic Environmental Model for Solid Rocket Motor Life Prediction.

摘要

Temperature changes that solid rocket motors experience while residing in various locations with different climates cause thermal stresses in the propellant. Repeated application of such stresses can cause damage to the rocket propellant, which may result in cracks. This report describes a probabilistic environmental model for solid rocket motors. Movement of rockets from one station to an other is simulated, using a Markov chain technique. A cumulative damage model is used to compile the damage resulting in each rocket location. The rocket external temperature is assumed to be a random variable and expressed in a probabilistic form for each Markov state. As an example, data were collected to represent the environmental model for Sidewinder rockets. The Markov matrix for Sidewinders was based on past motor logistics. Propellant failure is predicted when the cumulative damage exceeds a critical value. (Author)