Mathematical Models of the Effectiveness and Persistence of Mosquito Repellants.

摘要

Two models of the effectiveness and persistence of mosquito repellents on the skin were developed from published functions and data. The probit plane model relates the response (Y, in probits) of the mosquito test population to the log dose (X1) of repellent applied and the test period, or elapsed time from the time of application (X2). The exponential decay model estimates the repellent residue. The models were validated with original data from tests of deet (N,N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide) and ethyl hexanediol (2-ethyl,-1,3-hexanediol) on the forearm against the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti. The probit plane model was evaluated for ethyl hexanediol. The exponential decay model was evaluated for ethyl hexanediol. The decay constant and half-life were estimated for ethyl hexanediol. Applicable correlation coefficients, standard errors and confidence limits are given. The introduction of these models of the pharmacodynamics of mosquito repellants is a step toward establishing a rational basis for the research, development, testing and evaluation of repellents and for their regulation by the government. In addition, the mathematical functions employed may provide important clues to the basic physiological, ecological and behavioral mechanisms of repellent activity.