Enhancing the Stability and Security of Iraq through the Monitoring of Former Detainee Recidivist Insurgent Activity.

摘要

The destabilizing potential of recidivist insurgent activity in Iraq by former detainees poses a significant risk to Iraq and to United States interests in the region. Thousands of detainees were interned by United States (U.S.) forces in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Despite unprecedented successes in U.S. detentions operations, early operational mistakes fostered a detainee population sensitive to recidivism that may be influenced to engage in future destabilizing activities. Two factors that may influence future recidivist behavior include insurgent manipulation of social media to incite violence, and U.S. and Iraqi government inconsistencies in the treatment of key legacy detainees and insurgent groups. Monitoring mechanisms with low resource allocation should be implemented through programs currently sponsored by interagency partners with enduring missions in Iraq. These existing programs can be modified for recidivism trend evaluation, bringing significant value to strategic and operational mission development. Relevant data will inform regional U.S. leadership if significant trends require the development of new counterinsurgency courses of action or strategic leadership engagements.