Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference.

摘要

The problem of Bayesian nonparametric prediction and statistical inference is formulated and discussed. A solution is proposed based upon A sub n and H sub n as in Hill (1968). The meaning of parameters in the subjective Bayesian theory of Bruno de Finetti is discussed in connection both with A sub n and with conventional parametric models. It is argued that the usual sharp distinction between prediction and parametric inference is largely illusory. The finite version of de Finetti's theorem is emphasized for the practice of statistics, with the infinite case used only to obtain approximations and insight. (kr)