Study of Current World Telecommunications and a Projection of the Future

摘要

Telecommunications today are important factor in economic and social progress.The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community is also considered, by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology and their plans for future investment. Finally some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network protocol, FDDI-II is also reviewed.