Forecasts of North Pacific Maritime Cyclones with the Navy Operational GlobalAtmospheric Prediction System. (Reannouncement with New Availability Information)

摘要

Seventy-two-hour forecasts of sea level cyclones from the NAVY Operational GlobalAtmospheric Prediction System are examined. Cyclones that formed over the North Pacific region of maximum cyclogenesis frequency are included for study. The analysis is oriented to assist the forecaster in evaluating the numerical model guidance by emphasizing verification of operationally oriented factors (i.e., cyclogenesis, explosive deepening). Initially, systematic errors in forecast intensities and positions are identified. Maximum underforecasting errors (forecast central pressure higher than actual central pressure) occur over the central North Pacific region of climatological maximum cyclone deepening. Maximum overforecasting errors (forecast central pressure lower than the actual central pressure) occur over the region of climatological cyclone dissipation. Maximum position errors also occur over the central North Pacific region of climatological maximum deepening. These systematic error distributions indicate that there are diagnostic relationships between forecast verification time.