Rig Count Offers Unreliable Guide To US Output

摘要

Among all the numerical data relating to the US oil industry, the active rig count has been watched intensely in recent months for signs of whether the country's oil output could be starting to falter as onshore activity wanes, marking a pivot point from which recently battered crude prices could recover. But how fair is this extrapolation? No indicator is perfect, But there are many reasons to take the US onshore rig count with a pinch of salt The headline numbers are striking. In all, the US rig count has tumbled by 32% from its mid-October peak of 1,930 rigs — a formidable decline that reflects the impact of low oil prices on US producers (PIW Jan. 16' 15). But the rig count actually says far less about the market now than it did even during the 2008-09 oil price downturn.