Lower prices threaten capacity expansions

摘要

Opec’s Mideast Gulf Arab producers will continue to invest in capacity expansions in the next five years despite lower oil prices.But most other Opec producers’ expansion plans will be constrained. Iraq will lead the rise in capacity growth to 2019,and recently hit a milestone of 4mn b/d(WPA,23 January,p3). Baghdad expects capacity at its southern fields to rise to just over 6mn b/d in 2017 and 8.4mn b/d by 2020.And the semi-autonomous Kurdish region aims to nearly double capacity to 1mn b/d by 2018 from 550,000 b/d now. But a goal of 9mn b/d by 2020 is likely to be derailed by export infrastructure bottlenecks and delays to a 12mn b/d common seawater supply project for water injection at the southern fields,particularly as the government grapples with falling oil revenues because of lower prices.