Opec’s Middle Eastern exporters are weighing up the fiscal strain of falling oil prices. The core producers aim to maintain spending from financial reserves, but Iran and Iraq will struggle to meet budgetary commitments. Saudi Arabia is likely to experience a drop of almost 20pc in oil export revenues next year, Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment says. Using its baseline oil price forecast for Brent of $85/bl next year and $83/bl in 2016, Jadwa expects Saudi oil export revenues, which contribute around 90pc of budgetary income, to average just under $220bn in 2015 based on average output of 9.6mn b/d, compared with estimated revenues of $270bn this year (see table). And it predicts oil export revenues will fall further to $191bn in 2016, based on average oil output of 9.4mn b/d. Lower prices over the past few months have already reduced this year’s revenues by $53bn below last year’s level.
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