Analysis of the effectiveness of control measures against Schistosoma mekongi using an intra- and inter-village model in Champasak Province, Lao PDR.

摘要

Schistosomiasis mekongi is prevalent in the Khong district of Lao PDR, made up of one big island, Khong, and numerous small islands in the Mekong River. Schistosoma mekongi is spread by Neotricula aperta as the intermediate host along the Mekong River. Therefore, even if an epidemic of S. mekongi were stamped out in a certain village, infection may recur if the source of infection is a village located in the upper reaches of the Mekong River. The purpose of this study was to construct a mathematical model for the transmission of S. mekongi among villages from the upper to lower Mekong River to estimate the effect of control measures against it. The chief characteristic of the present model is competence in dealing with the spread of infection among villages through the Mekong River in consideration of the reduction in longevity of cercariae and miracidia and their diffusion in the river. The model also takes into account seasonal fluctuation in the water level of the Mekong River, which affects human behavior in terms of water contact. The results of simulations indicated that the prevalence of schistosomiasis mekongi would be suppressed to a low level for a long time in a village further downstream when universal mass treatment is performed in villages further upstream simultaneously.