THE CHINA BUST WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOOM:WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR FARM PRICES AND PROFITS?

摘要

Alot has changed in the 40 years I have been trading grain. When I first started, I kept an eagle eye on set-aside acreage, farm program loan prices, reserve payments, weather in the U.S., and USDA supply-demand reports. Then came 2005. That year, with the new Freedom to Farm policy, U.S. farmers were able to plant what they wanted, where they wanted. The new U.S. farm policy subsidized farm income rather than farm prices. Farm income was subsidized through direct payments, countercyclical payments,and in some years payment-in-kind. Prices started a decade-long rally in 2005. As crop prices went up, USDA farm program payments went down. The risks that farmers had to manage on their own went up. Many Farmers began to use revenue crop insurance products to help manage that risk.