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BULLS AND BLACK SWANS

机译:公牛和黑天鹅

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SOME REASONS WHY 2014 COULD BE BETTER THAN RECENT BEARISH FORECASTS, AND STILL VOLATILE.As the Commodity Classic trade show wound down in San Antonio, Texas, last month, I stopped by the U.S. Grains Council booth. U.S. corn exports were in the news, as the crisis unfolded in Ukraine, the planet's third biggest corn exporter. The day before,new-cropcorn futures had jumped a dime after Ukraine accused Russia of violating its territorial integrity in the Crimean peninsula.Julius Schaaf, an Iowa farmer who chairs the Grains Council, thought corn futures might hit $5. Two days later, he was right, at least for the July 2015 contract.Ukraine isn't the main reason for the optimism that was easy to find in San Antonio, where record Commodity Classic attendance topped 7,000.
机译:2014年为什么有些原因可能比最近的牛市预测好,而且仍会波动。上个月在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市举行的经典商品贸易展览会上,我停在美国谷物委员会的展位旁。随着危机在全球第三大玉米出口国乌克兰的蔓延,美国玉米出口成为新闻。前一天,在乌克兰指责俄罗斯侵犯其在克里米亚半岛的领土完整之后,新作玉米期货上涨了一角钱。爱荷华州农民,谷物协会主席朱利乌斯·沙夫(Julius Schaaf)认为玉米期货可能触及5美元。两天后,至少在2015年7月的合同中,他是对的。乌克兰并不是乐观的主要原因,而在圣安东尼奥,商品经典出席人数突破了7,000人,这并不容易。

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