Comparing population growth rates using weighted bootstrapping: Guiding the conservation management of Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby)

摘要

In this study we compare estimates of the long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r] for Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby), a threatened Australian species. In fluctuating environments such as semi-arid areas, herbivore populations respond directly to changes in the biomass of food resources. Biomass is generally correlated with rainfall, so it is often useful to model annual population growth rates of herbivores directly with rainfall. Models of this nature are referred to as numerical response models. The factors that are thought to threaten this species include competition from introduced herbivores and predation from foxes. Annual aerial survey data collected from 1997 to 2004 over approximately 600km of transect line were analyzed in seven zones within South Australia. Using the Ivlev numerical response model, the annual population growth rates were found to correlate best with the rain that fell in the seven-month period immediately prior to the surveys. Not surprisingly, positive growth rates were found to be associated with higher rainfalls in this period, while negative growth rates were associated with lower rainfalls. We also used weighted bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals around our estimates of long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r]. The findings suggest that the estimates of E[r] are positive in areas where there is fox and herbivore management. However, we found no evidence that this species will decline in the absence of these treatments.