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Solar cycle predictions based on extrapolation of spectral components: An update

机译:基于频谱分量外推的太阳周期预测:一个更新

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摘要

Three series (1876-1986, 1886-1996, and 1896-2006) of 111 annual values of sunspot number R-z in each were subjected to spectral analysis to detect periodicities by the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the periodicities so obtained were used in a multiple regression analysis (MRA) to estimate the amplitudes and phases. All series showed roughly similar spectra with many periodicities (24 or more), but most of these were insignificant. The significant periodicities (far exceeding 2 sigma) were near 5, 8-12, 18, and 37 years. Using the amplitudes and phases of these, we obtained reconstructed series, which showed good correlations (+0.7 and more) with the original series. When extrapolated further in time, the reconstructed series indicated R-z(max) in the ranges 80-101 (mean 92) for cycle 24 during years 2011-2014, 112-127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years 2022-2023, 115-120 (mean 118) for cycle 26 during years 2032-2034, and 100-113 (mean 109) for cycle 27 during 2043-2045.
机译:对三个太阳黑子数Rz的111个年值的三个系列(1876-1986、1886-1996和1896-2006)进行光谱分析,以最大熵法(MEM)检测周期性,并使用如此获得的周期性在多元回归分析(MRA)中估算振幅和相位。所有系列均显示出具有许多周期性(24个或更多)的大致相似的光谱,但其中大多数并不明显。重要的周期(远远超过2 sigma)接近5、8-12、18和37年。使用这些振幅和相位,我们获得了重建的序列,与原始序列显示出良好的相关性(+0.7或更高)。当进一步推断时,重建的序列表示2011-2014年第24周期的Rz(max)在范围80-101(平均92),2022-2023年第25周期的112-127(平均119),115 -在2032-2034年的周期26中为-120(平均118),在2043-2045的周期27中为100-113(平均109)。

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