Though first-quarter prices were about 10 percent lower than similar 2001 numbers, international prices and market sentiment have shown marked improvement from last year's lows. Recent information suggests that second-quarter domestic order books continue to show recovery and that the depressed levels recorded in the fourth quarter of 2001 aren't expected to return. Despite a more-positive macroeconomic outlook, the Western World aluminum industry must still contend with large above-ground stocks, the potential for smelter restarts, ongoing scrap tightness, and forecasts of only modestly higher second-half consumer demand. Thus, near-term price expectations remain conservative.
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