China's role in the global forest sector: how will the US recovery and a diminished Chinese demand influence global wood markets?

摘要

Over the last decade, while the size of China's economy more than doubled, China has simultaneously become a major producer and exporter of forest products. Although China's domestic supply of wood is significantly constrained both by a limited natural supply and by conservation-oriented policies, the country is increasingly regarded as the world's "wood workshop." Furthermore, China is the largest driver of demand for the trade in tropical logs and is becoming a significant driver of demand for trade in coniferous logs. In this paper, we describe a spatial equilibrium model adapted to study forest sector markets and policies that affect them. We present the model and the result of two alternative future scenarios. The first scenario analyzes the impact on global forest products markets of a US recovery in wood markets. The second scenario examines the effect on global forest products markets of decelerating growth in Chinese demand for wood products. Through these two scenarios, the modeling output sheds light on the role China's wood products markets have on resource supply and trade around the world. The trade model shows substantial potential changes in global prices, production, and trade activity associated with the recovery in domestic demand in the USA.