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Forensics as a proactive science.

机译:法医作为一门积极的科学。

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摘要

This paper considers how likelihood ratios can be derived for a combination of physical, chemical and isotopic measurements. Likelihood ratios were formulated based on the characteristics of a small convenience sample of 20 duct tapes. The propositions considered were: The physical and isotopic characteristics of ten rolls of duct tape were shown to be consistent throughout each roll. The width and thickness of the tapes and the density of the scrim fibres provided equivalent information and the combined physical characteristics provided a basis upon which to discriminate between many of the samples. Scatter-plots and confidence ellipses provided a convenient method to group the isotopic composition of the tape backing material and provided a basis to discriminate between samples which were physically indistinguishable. Considering both the physical and isotopic characteristics it was possible, at best, to ascertain that the evidence provided moderately strong support for the proposition that two samples of tape were derived from the same batch (LR=400). Kernel density estimates were used to model the distribution of isotopic compositions of the backing material. Using this technique it was possible to estimate objectively the probability that a sample with given characteristics could be drawn, at random, from the background population and to calculate a likelihood ratio based on the propositions above. The strength of evidence which could be presented by either model was ultimately limited by the size of the background sample.
机译:本文考虑了如何通过物理,化学和同位素测量相结合得出似然比。可能性比是根据20个胶带的方便样本的特征制定的。所考虑的提议是:十卷胶带的物理和同位素特征显示在每一卷中都是一致的。带的宽度和厚度以及稀松布纤维的密度提供了相同的信息,并且组合的物理特性为区分许多样品提供了基础。散点图和置信度椭圆提供了一种方便的方法来对带状背衬材料的同位素组成进行分组,并为区分物理上无法区分的样本提供了基础。考虑到物理和同位素特征,充其量只能确定证据有力地支持了以下观点:两个胶带样品来自同一批次(LR = 400)。内核密度估计值用于对背衬材料的同位素组成分布进行建模。使用这种技术,可以客观地估计可以从背景人群中随机抽取具有给定特征的样本的可能性,并可以根据上述命题计算似然比。两种模型均可提供的证据强度最终受背景样本大小的限制。

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