Modeling and algorithm of domino effect in chemical industrial parks using discrete isolated island method

摘要

Studies on domino effect in chemical industrial parks are crucial for avoiding accident escalation. Domino effect network (DEN) may be formed as a consequence of widely distribution of major hazard installations (MHIs) in chemical industrial parks. To decrease accident scale and prevent catastrophic consequence, it is essential to cut off the relations between entities in a DEN during accident periods. Focusing on this aspect, based on the conceptual model of discrete isolated island (DII) discussed, an objective function was brought out to evaluate the linking level of the whole park; while to help determine the dominant MHI (namely Domino hub in a DEN), equations for calculating accident escalation factor (AEF) was advanced. Further, an algorithm was developed for the proposed model. Application showed that the proposed model, which is capable of providing possible ways to determine the dominant MHI contributing to domino effect, was quite useful and effective for choosing technical prevention measures to enhance the safety level of chemical industrial parks.